Important dates:
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28 | 12617 | 55941 | 462 | 114 | 371 |
| Aug 29 | 12654 | 56037 | 462 | 114 | 374 |
| Aug 30 | 12654 | 56071 | 462 | 114 | 343 |
| Aug 31 | 12698 | 56136 | 464 | 115 | 354 |
| Sep 01 | 12752 | 56221 | 465 | 115 | 371 |
| Sep 02 | 12820 | 56337 | 466 | 115 | 439 |
| Sep 03 | 12879 | 56400 | 467 | 115 | 456 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 5.0 | 10.3% | 47 | 0.41% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 5.7 | 11.2% | 51 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 6.7 | 16.7% | 76 | 0.36% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 8.3 | 20.2% | 92 | 0.68% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 5.3 | 11.4% | 52 | 0.5% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 5.4 | 13.4% | 61 | 0.49% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 4.4 | 10.1% | 46 | 0.4% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.4 | 6.8% | 31 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 59 | 43.3 | 100% | 456 | 0.44% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28 | 8193 | 32773 | 338 | 98 | 264 |
| Aug 29 | 8193 | 32817 | 338 | 98 | 246 |
| Aug 30 | 8203 | 32847 | 338 | 98 | 229 |
| Aug 31 | 8243 | 32880 | 342 | 98 | 244 |
| Sep 01 | 8280 | 32940 | 345 | 100 | 256 |
| Sep 02 | 8328 | 33016 | 346 | 100 | 284 |
| Sep 03 | 8381 | 33078 | 348 | 101 | 323 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.0 | 11.8% | 38 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 7.1 | 18.3% | 59 | 0.7% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 4.0 | 12.7% | 41 | 0.58% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 6.7 | 18.9% | 61 | 0.73% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 4.0 | 10.8% | 35 | 0.45% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 4.3 | 11.8% | 38 | 0.39% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 2.7 | 7.4% | 24 | 0.29% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.6 | 8.4% | 27 | 0.38% |
| All ages | 53 | 35.4 | 100% | 323 | 0.5% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28 | 6213 | 21963 | 307 | 85 | 139 |
| Aug 29 | 6227 | 21981 | 308 | 85 | 147 |
| Aug 30 | 6238 | 21992 | 311 | 85 | 144 |
| Aug 31 | 6251 | 22004 | 315 | 85 | 149 |
| Sep 01 | 6271 | 22048 | 316 | 85 | 155 |
| Sep 02 | 6297 | 22074 | 316 | 85 | 167 |
| Sep 03 | 6346 | 22104 | 317 | 85 | 206 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.4 | 7.3% | 15 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 2.6 | 10.7% | 22 | 0.41% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 1.6 | 7.3% | 15 | 0.33% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 3.4 | 17% | 35 | 0.64% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 3.0 | 14.6% | 30 | 0.6% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3.3 | 16% | 33 | 0.49% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.3 | 15% | 31 | 0.49% |
| 70+ | 7 | 2.1 | 12.1% | 25 | 0.39% |
| All ages | 49 | 20.7 | 100% | 206 | 0.46% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28 | 13651 | 63651 | 514 | 93 | 449 |
| Aug 29 | 13660 | 63742 | 515 | 93 | 423 |
| Aug 30 | 13704 | 63821 | 515 | 93 | 430 |
| Aug 31 | 13727 | 63913 | 518 | 93 | 416 |
| Sep 01 | 13798 | 64067 | 519 | 93 | 459 |
| Sep 02 | 13832 | 64203 | 520 | 93 | 476 |
| Sep 03 | 13881 | 64319 | 524 | 93 | 456 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.1 | 7.9% | 36 | 0.3% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 6.7 | 16% | 73 | 0.44% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 7.9 | 20.8% | 95 | 0.45% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 6.1 | 16.9% | 77 | 0.57% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 4.7 | 13.2% | 60 | 0.44% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 3.4 | 10.1% | 46 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 2.9 | 6.1% | 28 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 6 | 3.6 | 9% | 41 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 49 | 37.4 | 100% | 456 | 0.39% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28 | 48819 | 382684 | 1722 | 320 | 1152 |
| Aug 29 | 48853 | 383189 | 1723 | 320 | 1065 |
| Aug 30 | 48927 | 383474 | 1727 | 320 | 1026 |
| Aug 31 | 49031 | 383934 | 1731 | 321 | 1012 |
| Sep 01 | 49121 | 384804 | 1733 | 322 | 1054 |
| Sep 02 | 49299 | 385481 | 1736 | 322 | 1157 |
| Sep 03 | 49417 | 385961 | 1738 | 324 | 1205 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 12.6 | 12.3% | 148 | 0.25% |
| 10-19 | 17 | 13.6 | 12.4% | 149 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 36 | 22.7 | 19.6% | 236 | 0.23% |
| 30-39 | 22 | 20.1 | 19.5% | 235 | 0.31% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 13.9 | 14.4% | 174 | 0.27% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 12.1 | 9.9% | 119 | 0.18% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 7.4 | 6.6% | 80 | 0.15% |
| 70+ | 6 | 6.1 | 5.3% | 64 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 118 | 108.6 | 100% | 1205 | 0.22% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28 | 657604 | 3145049 | 35496 | 7584 | 16051 |
| Aug 29 | 658427 | 3148912 | 35536 | 7584 | 15457 |
| Aug 30 | 659323 | 3151927 | 35591 | 7584 | 14769 |
| Aug 31 | 661239 | 3155277 | 35735 | 7599 | 15262 |
| Sep 01 | 663132 | 3161730 | 35847 | 7627 | 16421 |
| Sep 02 | 665473 | 3167364 | 35953 | 7638 | 17984 |
| Sep 03 | 667455 | 3172374 | 36067 | 7652 | 17784 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 204 | 185.7 | 10.3% | 1829 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 305 | 241.3 | 13.5% | 2398 | 0.32% |
| 20-29 | 342 | 277.7 | 16.5% | 2937 | 0.39% |
| 30-39 | 307 | 279.3 | 17% | 3024 | 0.4% |
| 40-49 | 254 | 216.3 | 13.2% | 2349 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 241 | 200.7 | 12.4% | 2199 | 0.27% |
| 60-69 | 172 | 151.9 | 9.1% | 1617 | 0.21% |
| 70+ | 157 | 131.1 | 8% | 1431 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 1982 | 1684.0 | 100% | 17784 | 0.31% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.3 | 45.6 | 48.3 | 43.3 | 27.1 | 36.8% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62.9 | 35.4 | 20.1 | 41.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55.7 | 20.7 | 12.4 | 45.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.3 | 58.6 | 57.3 | 37.4 | 29 | 25.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.7 | 26.2 | 29.5 | 108.6 | 91 | 16.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39.3 | 40.5 | 50.5 | 1684 | 1274 | 26.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-09-25 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7108"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges